Some stale / fresh data: Data from July 11

So K and I are running a few days behind the data. We’ve set up a kron job to automate the scraping of the data each day from the Sportsbet website, but it takes us a bit of time to organize ourselves re doing the analysis and then writing up the post. So the data is kind of fresh in that it’s new to the blog. But we know it’s a bit stale given we’re blogging about it 6 days late. Sorry about that.

We’ve just completed the analysis for the data from July 11. In the press, it’s all been about how the national level polls are tightening and the election is going to be close. Accordingly, we’re seeing more stories where the inevitability of an Abbott government is increasingly being questioned whereas before all the pressure and focus was on the ALP.

Our electoral level analysis differs a bit from the national polls. It shows the ALP making up a bit of ground, but the margin between the two parties re the expected number of seats won is still pretty large.

On July 11, the ALP had increased the expected number of seats they would win by 4 from the number predicted on June 30 (increase from 56 to 60). We’re mindful that the original election date of Sept 14 is pretty far away, and possibly going to change. (There’s a bit of chat that Nov 2 could be the new date.) But the electoral level analysis has not swung as dramatically as the national level analysis. We’ll look at a few reasons why this might be the case in coming posts.

July 11 – Predicted seats won

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2 thoughts on “Some stale / fresh data: Data from July 11

  1. Great posts and analysis guys, very interesting reading.

    one question that popped into my mind is: if the analysis uses ALP offered odds as a proxy for the probability of an ALP win, how does the fact that the bookie sets the odds to make financial margin affect the analysis, if at all?

    (apologies if you’ve covered this in the blog already)

    And a second question: are you offering odds on whether you correctly predict the election result? (ok, that was a bad joke).

    keep up the good work.

    • temay – thanks for your questions! re the bookie profit stuff, the short answer is that we do take into account the bookie profit margin. an upcoming post will explain this in more detail. its surprisingly easier than we had originally thought. thanks for your question and your bad jokes! talk soon mate.

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