On the day of the debate (August 11), we ran the numbers again. We’ve adjusted our longshot bias correction threshold from 0.1 to 0.2 because we now have more data for Palmer United Party candidates. It really takes a confident individual to name an entire political party after themselves so hats off to Mr Palmer.
Enough adulation for the wealthy and back to the predictions. Our predictions indicate the ALP seat count went down from 65 to 63. The Coalition is predicted to now gain 85 seats, up from 84. The ‘other’ category rose from 1 to 2 predicted seats.
What does this all mean? From the beginning of our blog prediction, the ALP were a long way behind. But since the Rudd ascension, they did have a bit of forward momentum. Given things were steady from July 30 to August 6 (at 65 seats), and has now fallen to 63 seats, things are looking tough. It is difficult to nominate a defining issue that could help the ALP turn things around. Where they find another 13 seats to hold onto government looks difficult. Our coming posts are going to continue looking at more electoral level analysis that K started with the Eden-Monaro post. More soon!