We posted a few weeks ago about the likelihood of a complete Labor wipeout in Tasmania: our models gave it a probability somewhere between 5% and 25%. Even a probability of 5% seemed pretty high at the time, given Labor currently hold every seat in Tasmania, except for Denison (held by Andrew Wilkie).

With the election one day away, we wanted to revisit this scenario. The odds should have considerable predictive power by now. Using the same methodology as the previous post, we estimate the probability of a Labor wipeout in Tasmania to be somewhere between 22% and 35%! Conservatively, that’s roughly the probability of flipping a coin twice and getting two heads. It’s more likely not to happen, but there is still a very considerable risk it will.

Looking at the individual seat probabilities, Bass and Braddon appear to be comfortable Coalition gains. Wilkie appears likely to retain his seat in Denison. Franklin and Lyons are the two seats that could still go either way, with Franklin leaning towards Labor (61% chance of Labor victory) and Lyons leaning towards the Coalition (58% chance of Coalition victory). If the implied probabilities of Labor victory drop in Franklin, the probability of a Labor wipeout will increase substantially. We’ll take another look at this scenario when we publish our predictions in the next day or so.

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Sportingbet’s direct market on this implies a 31% probability, which is towards the higher end of the range you give. (The event was at $4 until the August ReachTEL poll, then came down to $2.80, then soon went to $3 and has stayed there since.) At this stage with only Franklin and Lyons apparently in play, and a rather high degree of dependence on the state swing between the fates of the two, that seems to be how it should be.

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