It’s election day! The campaign has been only 33 days. I think K and I have managed to post on about 8 of those days so I dont think anyone’s going to give us jobs as bloggers any time soon. But the good news is that he is visiting me from MIT and we’re going to try make some predictions in the coming hours.
Like K said, it seems pretty apparent from all the polls and other analysis that the Coalition is going to get up. So our first goal of showing the effectiveness of betting markets in predicting the overall election isn’t going to be really tested. One thing we can point to is that the betting markets were definitely a lot more aggressive with a big Coalition win a lot earlier than a lot of the polls. Just two days after Rudd called the election, the betting markets pointed to the Coalition winning 84 seats to the ALP’s 65. At that time, the national level polls were calling it pretty close. The Newspoll 2 party preferred on both Aug 4 and Aug 11 was 52-48 in favor of the Coalition. So we werent complete muppets.
Anyway, we want to make amends re our poor blogging record. In the next few hours, we’re going to post
a. our final seat prediction
b. the probability distribution of the seat predictions
c. 95% confidence interval re the seat prediction
d. predictions for each seat
e. predictions re various seats we think are interesting
f. rantings and ravings as we get tired
So thank you for reading our shitty blog!