Our final predictions: Seat Count

Here are our final predictions

1. Coalition wins government gold with 99 seats

2. ALP a polite runners up with 48 seats

3. Independents win bronze with 3 seats


The difference between our predictions and those based on national polls is that national polls have to assume uniform swings. For example, extrapolating from the latest Roy Morgan poll, the Coalition is predicted to win 89 seats. Hopefully having data on every seat and not relying on uniform swings mean our predictions are more accurate. We’ve made a pal over the internet – Kevin Bonham. He’s been a good guy re commenting on our blog etc and he’s also got a nice blog of his own. Below is a summary of the predictions that lots of different parties have made found on his blog.

Poll Bludger: Currently has 90-57-3

Kevin Bonham: 95-52-3

Mark the Ballot: Aggregation has 88-60-2 off a 2PP of 53.1%

Pottinger Model Final Prediction: 95-54-1 UPDATED: 97-51-2

AFR Election Explorer:  89-58-3.

Simon Jackman:  50 Labor seats

ABC 7:30 Report: No idea what their model was or if there was one but they had about 56 for Labor.

Mackerras: Malcolm Mackerras  94-54-2

So while the election result looks like a foregone conclusion, the test of the predictive powers of betting markets is going to rest on predicting the number of seats each party will win. Compared to all others, our predictions for the ALP are the most dire. More to come.


2 thoughts on “Our final predictions: Seat Count

  1. Note the Pottinger model has been updated to 97-51-2.

  2. Pingback: election lab | 95% credible interval

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