Note that this uses betting odds from earlier in the week, and is superseded by our most recent analysis. We’ll have at least one more update before polls close.
The latest article in the AFR using Electionlab’s analysis.
By now you have probably seen that the election will be on Sept 7 – four short weeks away! I think this means me and K will have to crank up our general rate of output. We’ve been working on looking at different types of analyses beyond the current stuff and hopefully will execute it.
Re the election, it’s interesting to see the campaign slogans and tag lines the parties go with. Seems like we’ll be seeing a lot of ‘Hope, reward and opportunity’ via the Real Solutions Plan. And some stuff about a positive vision which is not the same old negativity. Three word slogans always remind me of ‘Peace, Bread, Land’. Not knocking it at all because they can be very effective.
Some exciting news for us is that we’ve agreed with the AFR to conduct our analysis for them on an exclusive basis. That was pretty good to nail down. But if anyone wants to put K’s face on radio, I’m sure everyone will enjoy that. Looking forward to the next four weeks!
Last weekend, the Australian Financial Review ran a story that made use of the analysis K and I did. The story talks about the predicted number of seats the ALP and the Coalition would win before and after the change in the ALP leadership, and some of the differences between polling data and betting market data.